Value Betting
Anyone who plays poker regularly has heard the term "Value
Bet" used when discussing a hand.
For those of you who haven't, a simple definition would be making
a bet (usually on the river) when you are confident that you will
be called by a lesser hand. The term is commonly used when you are
betting a mediocre hand on the end, but one that you feel is best.
Before I move forward I must advise that this is not just another
"trick" to add to your arsenal.
Many weaker players tend to overuse certain concepts once they
learn about them and it ends up costing them money instead of making
it for them. A good example of this is check-raising a button bettor
with middle pair, a good play against a habitual position bettor
but a terrible one against someone who would only bet with top pair
or better.
My advice is to use the information in this article to your benefit,
but make sure you're not overusing the concept. After all, the reason
value bets are profitable is because they will sometimes allow you
to gain an extra bet on the river with a hand you would normally
check.
So how exactly does one know when he is in a spot where he should
make a bet for value? It's quite simple actually, and requires only
simple hand reading skills in combination with a little knowledge
of your opponent. Let's take a look at a couple sample hands and
the thinking behind them:
1) I am sitting in a six handed $2/$4 limit game on PokerStars.
I'm dealt Q J on the button and the three players in front of me
fold. The game is pretty tight and I've been raising with a lot
more hands than usual since my image is good and people are giving
up a lot of pots to me.
The player in the small blind tends to overplay medium hands such
as ATo as well as any suited ace, and I've seen him put in a cap
preflop with AQo and KQs against a player who was a complete rock.
He will however fold pretty frequently if he doesn't have something
he likes.
The big blind is very weak and will usually fold to a raise or
call and then check/fold the flop.
Now I know I advised to just fold QJo in most situations in my
article on Hand Standards, but this is a special case. All signs
point towards a raise in this spot since I will likely win the pot
without having to make a hand and I do have two high cards with
which to make top pair if someone does call my raise.
I put in the raise, and the small blind immediately makes it 3
bets to go. The big blind folds and while I really don't like my
hand anymore, I obviously have to take a flop.
The Flop : K Q 7 There is $14 in the pot.
The small blind bets into me.
This isn't a flop that I'm happy with, though I did get a piece
of it with middle pair. The flop is extremely dangerous with the
King as well as the three-flush that I have no draw to. If this
were a multiway pot, anything but a fold would certainly be considered
suicide.
This situation is quite different as we are heads up, and I'm getting
8 to 1 to call.
The first thing I decide is that I cannot just fold or I am giving
up way too much. There are simply too many bets in the pot to throw
in the towel just yet. With my aggressive opponent in the SB and
his tendency to reraise with A4s and other weak hands, I could actually
have the best hand here, and he may also check the turn if a scary
card comes.
With all of that in mind, should I call or raise?
I don't think I gain much by raising here since my opponent is
unlikely to respect a raise on the small street and also could put
me in a very bad spot by making it three bets to go.
The only reason I'd ever want to raise here would be to gain information
about where I was at in the hand. Unfortunately, the board is such
that he may reraise with JJ with the Jd or similar hands which I
am currently beating. Since he may raise again with a draw, raising
doesn't really help me out much since I still have no clue where
I'm at. There is also the small possibility that my raise my win
the pot immediately, but with both a K and Q on the flop, it is
unlikely to succeed against a 3bettor.
I decide to just call and see what comes on the turn.
The Turn : K There is $18 in the pot.
The small blind bets.
This was an excellent Turn card since it didn't put another diamond
on the board, and also couldn't have beaten me if I was ahead on
the flop. (It is also less likely that my opponent has a King since
another is on the board.)
While my opponent could very easily have trips, I still don't know
where I stand except that my hand has just gotten stronger. I briefly
consider raising to try for a free showdown, but realize that it's
a bad idea for a couple of reasons. First, he will certainly reraise
me with trip Kings, and probably also AQ making me either fold or
put more money in while drawing dead or close to it. Second, he
is tricky enough to possibly reraise the turn with just the nut
flush draw and I'd have to lay my hand down. Third, even if I am
ahead, if he is on a diamond flush draw and it gets there on the
river, he will most likely bet into me again at which point I will
have to call simply because the pot is huge. Hopefully you can see
why raising the turn is a bad idea here.
I opt to just call again.
The River : 2 There is $26 in the pot.
The small blind checks quickly.
I really like my hand now since this player is not the type that
would try to check-raise with trips on the end here, and he would
certainly bet again with AQ if he had it. I also believe he would
bet a worse Queen into me, so when he checked I put him on a smaller
pair than the board like JJ, TT, 99 probably with a diamond since
he bet the flop and turn. I also believe that he will call with
any pair he has, and maybe even AJ high if he was that aggressive
with it, so this is an excellent spot to put in a value bet on the
river.
I bet, he calls, and my hand is good.
I checked the hand history and he actually had A T! It's amazing
how poorly some people play after the flop.
Notice how I really hated my hand preflop and on the flop, but
ended up being the one betting on the river in this hand. It's important
to be thinking throughout the hand and trying to deduce what your
opponent may have.
Most people would be content to simply check the river here and
hope that their hand was good on such a dangerous board. My observation
of this player and thinking throughout the hand ended up earning
me an additional big bet here as he called with ace high.
2) This time I'm in a $3/$6 shorthanded game on PokerStars and
I'm dealt Q Q in the big blind. Everyone folds to the small blind
who is a very passive player. From what I've seen, he will bet out
with top pair and then immediately slow down after being raised,
and rarely raise the turn or river without the goods.
The passive small blind limps in and I raise.
It's worth noting also that the blinds on PokerStars 3/6 games
are $1 and $3, making it very unprofitable to come in from the small
with some of the lesser starting hands. My opponent probably doesn't
take this into account though, and could be limping with virtually
any two.
The Flop : K Q T There is $12 in the pot.
My opponent immediately bets into me.
This is one heck of an action flop, but clearly I don't mind much
since I have middle set which is a very big hand.
Knowing my opponent's tendencies, I have a few ways I can play
this hand. I could raise now and get him to call me down, or I could
just call and then raise the turn and hope he had enough hand to
call.
The deciding factor was that I'd seen him fold to turn raises in
previous hands, but never to a flop raise if he held any pair.
So, I decided to just get the raise in on the flop and convince
him to call me down with whatever he held. The reason this is right
is because he wouldn't bet into me with a naked Jack and would need
at least KJ, JT or two pair to bet out. Another piece of information
that encourages the flop raise is that if he had AJ or J9 and had
flopped the straight, he would reraise me immediately on the flop
rather than slowplaying to the expensive street and it would then
cost me less to draw to my full house. If I wait till the turn to
raise, I simply cost myself more money if he has flopped the straight
and reraises me.
I raise the flop and he just calls. This tells me that my hand
is way good at this point and he has not flopped the straight but
is probably drawing to it while also having a pair.
The Turn : J There is $18 in the pot.
The Jack on the turn is an interesting card. First, it completes
the rainbow meaning that no flush draws are possible. It also puts
four parts to a straight on the board which will usually freeze
the action.
The small blind checks.
My read on this guy was that if he had just turned the straight,
he would bet into me with it rather than going for a checkraise.
He was not the type to get tricky, but would just bet whenever he
had a strong hand. Because he checked here I was pretty sure that
my hand was still good and that he probably turned two pair and
would just call down with it.
Notice here how my read induces more profit on this hand than normal.
The standard play here with a set would be to check behind on the
turn and then just call the river so that you avoid a tough situation
on the turn if you do get check-raised. You're giving yourself a
free card to a full house and your hand could also still be good
(but unlikely to be drawn out on), so you still call the river.
Since I knew this guy wouldn't go for a check-raise though, I went
ahead and bet and he called.
The River : 4 There is $30 in the pot.
Again, I still felt my hand was good here, so I bet for value,
he called, and I checked the hand history to see that he had KJ.
In this hand I ended up making an additional two big bets simply
by reading my opponent's tendencies and betting a medium hand for
value on a very dangerous board.
The point I want to make here is that you shouldn't be content
to just check down your hand on the river if the betting action
has told you that it should be good. Even on a dangerous board like
KQJT I was able to value bet my three Queens.
Clearly you shouldn't get extreme here and start betting bottom
pair for value, but paying attention is very important and will
earn you extra money if you're observant enough to read your opponents
and their tendencies.
Until next time.
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